Adam Hamilton på Zeal var spot on för några veckor sedan i "Hyper-Oversold Markets" när han tvärtemot alla permabears där ute spådde en rebound. Det var precis vad vi fick. Zeal är duktig, riktigt duktig. Läs vad han har att säga i senaste artikeln:
Cheap Gold Stocks
"The anxiety-driven gold buying in July and August was enormous, driving an unprecedented 27.4% summer gold surge in just 7 weeks! But the gold stocks lagged well behind, the HUI only rallied 17.9% over this span which dragged the HGR even lower. The day gold peaked in late August, the HGR was back under 0.32x. This was near the lowest levels the gold stocks had traded relative to gold since March 2009, right after emerging out of the secondary stock-panic lows.
Torn in August between following gold higher and the stock markets lower, the gold stocks couldn’t leverage gold’s big gains. And unfortunately for this metal, it had simply rallied too far too fast. As I warned the trading day before it topped, gold was extremely overbought and due to correct hard. On top of that, the fear and anxiety from the sharp stock correction that had fueled gold’s blistering ascent were already fading.
As expected, gold indeed plunged in September. While it had been drifting lower for a month after getting so overbought, it fell sharply after the Federal Reserve failed to launch a third inflationary quantitative-easing campaign. The next morning some economic data out of China was misinterpreted which scared commodities traders into assuming the Chinese economy was slowing dramatically. Though not true, all commodities and commodities stocks were dumped aggressively in a brutal bloodbath.
And once again as usual, the HUI still amplified gold’s downside despite failing to participate in its rare summer upside. So again the HGR was driven down to March 2009 levels, among the cheapest in gold stocks’ entire secular bull. While this gold-stock selling was perfectly understandable psychologically, traders were scared, it made zero sense fundamentally. Even after correcting, gold above $1600 remained at wildly-profitable levels to mine that were never even seen before mid-July!
So gold stocks are extraordinarily cheap relative to the price of gold today. We haven’t seen anything like this since the stock panic, an incredible time to snatch up unloved gold stocks at dirt-cheap prices. That previous stock-panic anomaly of low gold-stock prices was quickly reversed with a massive HUI upleg in 2009 that far outpaced the underlying gains in gold. Given the fact that such low HGR levels were never seen before the panic, and they couldn’t persist after it, odds are today’s anomaly won’t last long either."
Om ECB och EU printar över problemen i euro-området genom att buffra upp EFSF-fonden till 1.3-2 TEUR, så kan vi nog få ett trevligt PM-rally de kommande veckorna.