Ny artikel om Allana i Resource Clips där bolagets Senior VP Strategic Projects Jack Scott uttalar sig om vad som sker just nu och vad planen är. Allana för diskussioner med flera potentiella partners just nu enligt Scott. Kan Yara vara en av dem tro..?
Allana increases Ethiopia Dallol Potash Resource Estimate
"Scott notes that the new estimate represents a 90% increase to the measured and indicated resource, “And an overall expansion of the total resource as well. We want to move as much as possible into measured and indicated, so as we go through the feasibility study we can roll that into potential reserves. Our exploration has been predominantly in the shallow, western region of the property."
"Right now our timeline is focused on continuing the feasibility study and some pilot work. Pilot solution wells, pilot evaporation ponds—pre-production analysis due for completion at the end of this year. So the feasibility study, including all that pilot work, is due for completion at the end of this calendar year. We’re doing our environmental and social impact assessment work in concert with one of our major shareholders, the International Finance Corporation, and that’s proceeding and due for completion at the end of this year as well. In parallel with all that work, we’re working through BNP Paribas, our financial advisor, to bring our lenders along through that technical and environmental and social evaluation process so we’re ready to work towards an accelerated close on the project at the end of this year."
"Allana intends to take the Dallol Project to production. Scott adds, “We’re looking for strategic off-takers. That’s part of the work program through the summer this year. We’re in discussion with a number of players, people that bring access to market demand for potash. Those are our targets for strategic partners. People that, perhaps, can bring some operating expertise as well."
onsdagen den 2:e maj 2012
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Låter intressant!
SvaraRaderaJag tror tyvärr inte att ett samarbete med en partner kommer att driva kursen så värst mycket.
Det bästa vore ju ett uppköp. Hoppas inte den dörren stängs nu bara.
Vad tror du Scoris?
Jag håller verkligen inte med. Beror helt på vilken partner. De plockar ju knappast in ännu en junior. Vi snackar typ Yara, BHP etc. Det skulle sannolikt få mycket stor påverkan på kursen (uppåt).
SvaraRaderaVarför skulle de minska chansen till uppköp? Många uppköp börjar just med att det går in en partner som sedan gillar vad de ser så mycket att de köper upp bolaget. Precis så skedde med Anglo Potash där BHP gick in som JV-partner och sedan köpte upp dem.
Based on the last 3 potash take over deals Allana should expect nothing less than $4.93 per share based on the revised resource estimate and comparing apples to apples…the facts are the facts.
SvaraRaderaIn 2008
BHP bought Anglo Potash “Jansen Project” for $284 MUSD. BHP bought out Anglo’s portion in the Burr Project. 25% x (Measured 238m tons + Indicated 241m tons = 479m tons) = 119m tons M+I at 37% KCL x 35% extraction ratio = 15m tons of sellable MOP or $284m / 15m tons = $18.93 per sellable ton. Potash was selling at $500 per ton and the capex per ton was $1529.
(Anglo Potash entered into a joint venture (the "JV"), with BHP Billiton pursuant to which Anglo Potash holds a 25% interest (through its wholly owned subsidiary Prairie Potash Corp.) and BHP holds a 75% interest in the JV.)
In 2010
BHP bought Athabasca Potash “Burr Project” for $341 MUSD. The “Burr Project” contains Measured Mineral Resources of 126m tons at a grade of 34% KCL, Indicated Mineral Resources of 299m tons at a grade of 37% KCL. The updated resource estimate (May 2009) of 425m tons M+I at 36%KCL x 35% extraction ratio = 53m tons of sellable MOP or $341 / 53m tons = $6.43 per sellable ton. Potash was selling at * $350 per ton (the lowest price per ton since early 2008). Using the price of potash at today’s $500 per ton the price per sellable ton would be = $8.35 per ton sellable. The capex per ton was $1047.
In 2011
K+S bought Potash One “Legacy Project” for$428 MUSD in 2011 with Potash selling at $450 per ton MOP. Indicated 251m tons at 26% KCL x 35% extraction ratio = 23m tons of sellable MOP and (853m tons Inferred at 23%KCL) or $428m / 23m tons = $18.60 per ton sellable. Potash was selling at $475 per ton and the capex per ton was $996.
In 2012
Allana is expected to release a revised resource estimate by the beginning of May. Based on a review of released drill results and assuming continuity of similar results we can assume: current measured and indicated 674m tons plus 50% = 1.01 billion tons at 20% KCL x 35% extraction ratio = 71m tons of sellable MOP/SOP.
Assuming the current price of potash at $500 per ton (similar to 2008 and 2011) and applying the average sellable price per ton for the 3 deals above ($18.93+$8.35 +$18.60 / 3) = $15.29 per ton sellable.
71m tons sellable x $15.29 per ton = $1.09 billion / 220m shares outstanding = $4.93 per share AAA using equal dynamics and comparative tons, price and actual sellable tonnage.
The pending valuation for a take out offer of $4.93 per share of AAA assumes:
· No premium for the 50% of resource as SOP ($150 p ton usual premium);
· No premium for the pending BFS in September 2012;
· No premium for the $600m on “the table” from BNP for long term debt financing;
· No premium for Allana having one of the lowest capex per ton at $796 and Opex at $90 per ton.
Comparison of estimated cost of capex for the 3 deals:
Anglo Potash “Jansen Project” $1529 per ton capex
Athabasca Potash “Burr Project” $1047 per ton capex
Potash One “Legacy” $996 per ton capex
Current Market CAP of Allana minus cash for Allana (.50 cents x 220 m shares outstanding=$110m–$65m cash on hand = $45 m market cap or / 71m tons sellable = .65 cents per ton” sellable.
Which is “7” times lower than the average of the last 3 potash deals done…fact!
Ja vi får hoppas att du har rätt men det känns i alla fall som ett uppköp då kan dra ut på tiden...
SvaraRaderaVi vill ju ha snabba cash...
Då föreslår jag V75, lotto eller Kasinot istället för investeringar.
SvaraRaderaJag tar $5 alla dar i veckan :)
SvaraRaderaMvH
Mattias
:)
SvaraRaderaUppköp på 5CAD låter bra!
SvaraRadera''The project now has measured and indicated resources of 1.3 million tonnes at an average grade of 19.32% KCI ''
SvaraRaderaDet ska väl stå 1.3 billion tonnes i artikeln?
Jupp
SvaraRadera